By Michael Roth / Graphics Baird Research January 16, 2025
Baird’s interpretation is that a demand slowdown is increasingly visible with growth below pre-pandemic levels.
Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 revenue-weighted increased 1.1 percent year over year, according to respondents to the quarter Baird/RER rental equipment industry survey, the slowest growth post-pandemic. In the third quarter, revenue rose 1.7 percent year over year. Thirty-four percent of survey respondents reported that fourth quarter missed internal budgets, while 13 percent said they posted better-than-expected results. Fifty-two percent of respondents said revenue was in line with expectations. The net negative (-21 percent) is the fifth straight quarter below expectations.
Baird’s interpretation is that a demand slowdown is increasingly visible with growth below pre-pandemic levels.
There are multiple factors dragging performance: the lagged effect of higher rates on “local” construction and some project pushouts. At the same time, fleets have grown, with over-fleeting becoming a problem.
“Slowing nonresidential construction accompanied by minimal megaprojects,” said one comment. “’Local’ commercial construction likely will not accelerate until the second half of 2025 at best.”