Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Summary
The 9.2% gain in March durable goods orders was due almost entirely to a pop in orders for nondefense aircraft. The underlying trend in orders remains weak as businesses await clarity on tariff policy. Durable shipments pulled back, but equipment spending was still strong in Q1.
‘Cause I’m Leavin’ on a Jet Plane
Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% during March, but almost all of that gain can be traced to a surge in nondefense aircraft orders specifically, which jumped by $26 billion (a 139% monthly gain) (chart). When you strip out aircraft, the underlying trend in orders was more modest. Excluding broad transportation, orders were flat (chart). Core capital goods orders, which exclude aircraft and defense, rose just 0.1%.