A Quarterly Survey of State Labor Markets
Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Summary
State Payrolls Climb Modestly as Unemployment Rates Move Sideways
On balance, state payrolls expanded at the start of 2025. Thirty-three states posted a positive monthly average payroll gain in the first quarter. However, momentum across state labor markets appears to be downshifting, with fewer states adding jobs on average in Q1 than did in Q4. Furthermore, 17 states and the District of Columbia posted flat or negative job growth in Q1. Similarly, a slightly higher number of states registered increased unemployment rates in the first three months of the year, though most states only experienced a modest rise.
Although moderating, most state labor markets appear to be on solid footing at present. The future pace of job growth is highly uncertain, however. Decreased visibility on trade policy could disproportionately weaken job growth in states with high exposure to international trade, especially California, New York and other coastal states with major ports that serve as critical points of entry and exit and also employ significant numbers of residents in the transportation, logistics and freight industries.