Source: ITR Economics – April 2025
The tariffs introduced by the Trump administration have sparked widespread fears that these actions could lead to a 2025 recession in the United States.
The tariffs implemented by the Trump administration have caused widespread concern for business leaders and consumers alike, raising fears that these measures could lead to a potential recession in the US. These ever-changing tariffs impact industries to varying degrees, which also affects consumer behavior and spending. In these uncertain economic times, ITR Economics is committed to providing the information necessary to best equip you to make informed decisions for your business.
Why ITR Economics Is Not Forecasting a Recession
ITR Economics is not forecasting a recession for 2025. Here are a few key reasons why tariffs, as they stand now, will not lead to a recession:
- Localized Impact on Segments of the Economy
- Tariffs primarily affect specific sectors and businesses that rely on imported goods the most. While tariffs can lead to higher costs and supply chain inefficiencies, and could lead to lower economic growth, they create areas of pain for some and opportunity for others. This could create a balance that helps the overall macroeconomy avoid an outright recession.
- Tariffs primarily affect specific sectors and businesses that rely on imported goods the most. While tariffs can lead to higher costs and supply chain inefficiencies, and could lead to lower economic growth, they create areas of pain for some and opportunity for others. This could create a balance that helps the overall macroeconomy avoid an outright recession.
- The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
- Many recession fears stem from recent negativity in stock market performance. While the stock market can provide insights into economic trends, it is not the primary indicator of the overall health of the economy.