Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Summary
The government shutdown may have altered the September CPI release date, but it hasn’t changed the stubborn state of inflation. We estimate headline CPI rose 0.4% last month, underpinned by a jump in energy prices, which would lift the year-over-year rate to a 16-month high of 3.1%. Core inflation likely rose 0.3% for the third consecutive month, holding the year-over-year rate steady at 3.1%. Beneath the surface, we expect goods inflation to stay elevated due to continued tariff pass-through, while an easing in primary shelter costs should help cool services inflation.