Summary The leading economic index (LEI) jumped 1.1% in November, its largest increase since May. The rise came on the heels of average monthly jobless claims slowing to 240K, the lowest of the pandemic-era. Stock prices had their highest contribution in seven months due to November’s rebound, but consumer expectations continue to be a dead weight and have yet to show the full effect from the Omicron variant.
Leading Index Has Its Largest Monthly Increase Since May
The leading economic index (LEI) jumped 1.1% in November, its largest increase since May. The rise came on the heels of average monthly jobless claims slowing to 240K, the lowest of the pandemic-era, which boosted the LEI by 0.56 percentage points (pp). While originally responsible for causing the index to tumble last year, declines in initial jobless claims have been a dependable monthly contributor in 2021, although they have been subject to volatility. November’s contribution joins the ranks of robust gains this April, May and October, when jobless claims accounted for at over half of the overall increase in LEI (see dark gray bars on chart). READ FULL ARTICLE>>