Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Summary
Consumer Confidence edged modestly lower in June, keeping the index within its narrow recent range. The details continue to demonstrate a hesitant, but not overly concerned, consumer.
Stuck in a Rut
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell modestly to 100.4 in June from a downwardly revised 101.3 a month earlier. That’s despite lower gasoline prices in early June and the S&P 500 notching a record high in the days leading up to this month’s survey cut off. The report was about as mixed as it can get. Income expectations were down, vacation plans were up and households’ views of the labor market and business conditions were little changed. This all shook out to a fairly stable confidence reading as the top chart reveals it continued to move within its recent narrow range.
The modest drop in the overall index was due to a pullback in households’ expectations, and after accounting for revisions the present situation measure rose to a three-month-high (chart). All told we don’t see much “new” news in this release. The household sector remains hesitant, but not overly concerned—as described clearly in the release, “..strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future.”
Labor market perceptions did improve last month; the share of consumers viewing jobs as “plentiful” rose to 38.1%, while a modesty lower share (14.1%) of consumers viewed jobs as “hard to get.” But, despite the modest monthly improvement, there has been a trend of deteriorating perceptions at play since early 2023.