Heads Up: August LEI Flashes Recession Warning

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.Summary August’s decline in the Leading Economic Index pushed the six-month average change below a level historically indicative of a coming recession. The trend decline in the LEI since the start of the year is consistent with our view that the economy will slip into a mild recession by the beginning of next year. Signal You’ve Waited For The Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.3% in August, which caused the six-month average change in the index to slide to -0.46% last month, breaching a concerning level (chart). We recently highlighted that the six-month average change in the LEI has never been below -0.4% without a recession over the past 60 years. The longest lead time in which the average change has fallen below this threshold before the start of a recession has been four months, leading into the 1980 recession. READ FULL ARTICLE>>