Summary Although slower than in recent months, the 431K increase in employment in March gives a cleaner picture of what remains a solid trend in hiring. The strong pace of hiring is being supported by rising labor force participation but is still plenty strong enough to keep the labor market tightening. The unemployment rate fell to a fresh cycle low of 3.6%, while average hourly earnings growth picked up to 0.4%. While the jobs market is not the Fed’s number one priority at present, today’s solid report supports the prospect of a 50 bp increase in the fed funds rate at the FOMC’s May meeting. And the Beat Goes On The slowdown in hiring in March leaves nothing to be concerned about on the labor front. Instead, the 431K increase in payrolls offers a cleaner read on the trend in hiring after the past few months’ reports have been affected by unusual seasonal dynamics and the Omicron COVID wave. Hiring continues along at a robust pace that is still more than twice the average of the past expansion. If the March pace were to be sustained, payrolls would be back to their pre-COVID levels in July of this year. READ FULL ARTICLE>>
