Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.Summary
After factoring in revisions to October, industrial production is actually lower than where it was estimated to be last month despite a scant gain in November. In fact, production is down slightly from a year ago as well. We explore today how some industries are faring better than others.It Was an Ugly Tree Anyway
Industrial production rose just 0.2% in November, which was not only short of expectations, it was not even enough to offset the downward revision to last month’s decline. An initially reported 0.6% decline in October was switched to a 0.9% drop with the revision. The combination of pent-up demand and supply chain woes have breathed a bit of life into the auto space, but the post-strike rebound in manufacturing wasn’t enough to support broader manufacturing and elsewhere output is struggling. This dynamic was evident in the revisions with the ex-autos slice of production revised lower for last month before slipping another 0.2% in November.
The index level for the manufacturing index of industrial production is set up such that the base year of 2017 = 100 (chart). The current index level is 99.15. After all the ups and down and COVID supply chain madness, manufacturing output is about where it was 6 years ago. Keep that in mind the next time someone talks about a soft landing…manufacturing is still waiting for take-off.