Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary
After five straight monthly declines, consumer confidence rebounded in May amid a cease-fire in the trade war. Even after the bounce, confidence remains near the low-end of the recent range and further improvement may depend upon continued deescalation of trade hostilities.Confidence Rises Amid Suspension of Trade Hostilities
There is some disagreement about the scope for tariffs to negatively impact consumer spending. The camp convinced that tariffs present only a modest headwind can take heart in the hard data such as the April retail sales report, which showed a third straight monthly increase, if only a mild one (+0.1%). Unclear at this point is the degree to which April retail spending still reflects efforts by some households to get a purchase in before the tariffs make an impact on retail pricing and whether that theme carried into May.