A Muddled Message From the November Jobs Report

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary The most closely watched numbers in the November employment report were strong. Job growth in November came in above consensus expectations, rising 199K. Even with the beginning and end of major strikes injecting some noise into monthly payroll changes since late summer, payroll growth has averaged […]

Consumers Singing Loud for All to Hear

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary Consumer sentiment jumped in early December amid the recent move lower in gas prices and push higher in equity values. Expectations are supportive of a decent pace of spending, just in time for the holidays. There’s Room for Everyone on the Nice List Consumers perceptions are […]

November CPI: Moving on to 2024

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary The November CPI report was relatively uneventful. Falling gasoline prices and modest food inflation restrained the headline CPI to just a 0.1% increase in the month. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI was up 0.3%, in line with consensus expectations. Core goods prices continued to […]

Is A Recession Looming? Two Big Bank CEOs See It That Way

By Joey Solitro | Kiplinger Reports Recession is likely, Citi’s CEO told a Senate panel today, a sentiment echoed by JP Morgan’s chief executive last week. Citi expects a recession as a result of several macroeconomic factors, including persistent inflation in services and rising debt, CEO Jane Fraser said today, December 6, during testimony before […]

Upside Surprise in November Retail Sales Signals Sustained Consumer

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary The upside surprise in November retail sales is indicative of the continued staying power on the part of consumers. A decent holiday season looks to be in full swing, though we remain cautious if recent momentum can be sustained in the new year. Santa’s Got a […]

ISM Manufacturing & All Major Components in Contraction

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary The November ISM brought more of the same; activity remains stuck in a rut with all major components in contraction. The one surprise came from a jump in prices paid. Slower price declines can be traced to key commodities, but the descent in goods prices may […]

Construction Spending Picks Up in October

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary Residential Boosts Overall Outlays as Nonresidential Slows Total construction spending advanced solidly during October. The 0.6% gain in overall outlays was driven by a 1.2% rise in residential spending. Despite higher mortgage rates, lean resale inventory and incentives such as rate buy-downs and price discounts have […]

Deadline Looms for Section 179, Bonus Depreciation for 2023 Equipment Buys

By Don McLoud – Equipment World The year is almost over, but it’s not too late to take advantage of hefty tax breaks for buying or leasing construction equipment before December 31. Though one benefit is significantly smaller than in 2022 and is on the way to extinction, another has risen to its highest level […]

Trade Balance Widens in October but Normalization Likely Still in Train

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary The U.S. trade deficit widened for the second straight month in October amid a drop in exports and only a modest growth in imports. Net exports are positioned to be a fairly neutral force on Q4 growth, but we’re still in the early innings. Two Is […]

Economy Up, Leading Index Down

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Summary The Leading Economic Index (LEI) was down again in October. For more than a year and a half this bellwether has signaled a recession that has yet to arrive. We look at prior cycles to consider to what extent the severity of decline in LEI is […]