And the Bottom Drops Out: LEI Digs Even Deeper

Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.Summary The sharp drop in the March LEI adds to a string of declines that marks the sharpest reversal on record outside of a recession. The index continues to present a clear message that recession is ahead. LEI Suggests We Brace for Impact The Leading Economic Index (LEI) continues to signal the economy is headed for recession. The index has now declined for twelve straight months and the 1.2% drop in March marks the largest monthly decline since April 2020 when the economy was in the worst of the pandemic. The large decline in March pushed the six-month average change to -0.8%, well-below the threshold historically consistent with recession (chart). The LEI is now nearly 8% below its peak last year, which as can be seen in the nearby chart, marks the largest slide outside a recession in the history of the index going back to the late 1950s. READ FULL ARTICLE>