Source: Economics Group of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.
Summary
After a jolt to consumer confidence in October, consumer moods continued to perk up in November. If history is any guide, confidence may receive a jolt in coming months now that the election is behind us. But just as the economy mattered more for consumers pre-election, the labor market and still-high prices act as an anchor on the moods of consumers.
Mood Music Shifting?
Consumers’ confidence ticked up in November with the Consumer Confidence Index rising to 111.7 from an upwardly revised print of 109.6 a month earlier. An upward monthly move on its own is encouraging, but what makes this more impressive is that it’s coming off a high base in October. That is, confidence leaped over ten points in October, and when you combine that with the November gain, confidence is now sitting at the highest level in nearly three years.
As we wrote last month, in the lead up to the presidential election it was economic concerns that were front of mind for consumers rather than the election outcome. That said, confidence did get a jolt last time Trump won the office. Consumer confidence was trending higher between the financial crisis and the pandemic, but even after accounting for that trend rise, the Trump election in 2016 bolstered confidence with a 24% jump between October 2016 and March 2017 (chart).