I’m Not Sure I Want to Follow Your Lead

Summary The November Leading Economic Index (LEI) doesn’t paint a rosy picture for the economy in 2023. Monthly declines are getting larger and weakness is spreading. Recession is coming according to the LEI. Nothing to See Here The Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 1.0% in November and continued its now nine-month streak of declines, falling to its lowest level since March 2021 (chart). The index came in below consensus expectations and registered at an index level of 113.5 (chart). The LEI continues to signal a recession is on the horizon, with the six-month average change falling to -0.6%, well below the 0.4% threshold that has been historically indicative of a coming recession (chart). READ FULL ARTICLE>>