Source: ITR Economics
Preliminary 2Q US Real GDP data was a near-perfect match to our forecast. Despite tariffs, the economy remains steady, backed by strong fundamentals.
Preliminary second quarter US Real GDP data was released today. The second quarter data was essentially identical to our forecast prepared with June 2024 data, four quarters ago (99.96% accuracy).
The normality of the second quarter GDP data and our forecast accuracy underscores a point our speakers and economists have been emphasizing for months (as it relates to this trade war specifically) and decades (as it relates to most non-economic disruptions in general): The economic fundamentals of consumers and businesses are the primary drivers of the US economy, and examining a system of leading indicators is still the most accurate way to forecast and plan for the future.
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